Energy Watch Group accuses International Energy Agency (IEA) of undermining the growth of renewable energy
A new study by leading independent research authority Energy Watch Group, “Wind Power in Context – A Clean Revolution in the Energy Sector” identifies exponential growth in wind power capacity since the early 1990s. The experts from the Energy Watch Group has also unleashed a broadside against the International Energy Agency (IEA) for publishing misleading data on wind power and for promoting fossil fuels and nuclear energy as irreplaceable technologies.
IEA plays a major role in the global energy sector – advising governments in formulating their energy policies, which have a direct impact on the global economy. The report is highly critical of IEA’s negative approach, “One has to ask if the ignorance and contempt of IEA toward wind power and renewables in general is done within a structure of intent. Renewables tend to look ever expensive and close to irrelevant while oil, coal and nuclear look irreplaceable in the IEA World Energy Outlook reference scenarios.”
The report questions the IEA’s real interests, “The IEA Outlook remains attached to oil, gas, coal and nuclear, and renewables seem to have no chance to reverse this trend. This organisation, whose constitutional task would be to protect consumers from price hikes and to deliver energy security, has been and is deploying misleading data on renewables for many years. This is also true vice versa: As recently as 2002, IEA predicted an oil price of USD29 per barrel by 2030, and in 2007 its forecast for 2030 stood at USD60 per barrel. By summer 2008, we found out that a price of USD50-USD150 per barrel is more realistic – for 2008, let alone 2030!”
The Energy Watch Group experts blame the IEA for depicting coal and nuclear as ever cheaper than wind power. Even on fossil fuels and nuclear power that it champions, the IEA does not specify investment cost, interest rates, fuel costs or costs for waste disposal, emissions or decommissioning for these technologies.
The experts reveal that the wind power sector has been consistently proving the IEA wrong. The wind power net capacity additions over the last ten years (1998-2007) have showed a mean growth rate of 30.4 per cent per year, corresponding to a doubling of net additions every two and a half years.
With net capacity additions of almost 20,000 Megawatts in 2007, the report suggests that, contrary to IEA forecasts, growth of wind power additions will continue and that it will be driven not just by costs for fossil fuels and nuclear cost overruns – but by access to new wind resources, by new grid regulations, by an emerging world market for wind turbines and components and by ever cheaper and better wind technology.
The author of the report, Energy Watch Group expert Dr. Rudolf Rechsteiner, a member of the Swiss parliament and sits on its energy and environment committee, explored the drivers behind the growth in wind power identifying sixteen key attributes that will continue to drive growth. These include: a free primary energy; an infinite resource supply; global accessibility to supply; stable life cycle cost guarantee; increasing price competitiveness; zero operational carbon emissions or hazardous waste; zero requirement for cooling water; decreased payback times and fast innovation cycles.
The study explores four different scenarios for power consumption and wind generation which see, should the growth of the last ten years continue, the potential for global wind power generation (accompanied by solar) to match that of conventional generation by 2025 and to completely phase them out by 2037.
Scenario A: high power consumption and high wind power growth sees renewables exceed 50 per cent of global electricity provision before 2025 with a total demand of 37600 TWh and wind generation capacity of 7,500,000 MW worldwide, producing 16400 TWh. The observed mean annual growth rate of wind power net additions from 1998 to 2007, 30.4 per cent per year, was used as a proxy for further expansion. As a result, wind energy, alongside with solar, would conquer a 50 per cent market share of global new power plant installations by 2019. Global non-renewable power generation would peak in 2018 and could be phased out completely by 2037.
Scenario B: high power consumption and moderate wind power growth (15.2 per cent per year, half the rate historically observed 1998-2007) sees renewables at 23 per cent of global electricity provision in 2025, with a total demand of 37600 TWh and a wind generation capacity of 1,837,000 MW worldwide, producing some 4023 TWh (including a non specified amount of solar). As a result, wind energy would conquer a 50 per cent market share of global new power plant installations by 2033, alongside with solar.
Scenario C: moderate power consumption growth (1.8 per cent per year) and high wind power growth sees renewables exceed 65 per cent of global electricity provision in 2025, with a total electricity demand at 27430 TWh and a wind capacity of 5,212,000 MW worldwide, producing 11,414 TWh. As a result, wind energy will conquer a 50 per cent market share of global new power plant installations by 2017, alongside with solar.
Scenario D: moderate power consumption (1.8 per cent per year) and moderate wind power growth (15.2 per cent) sees renewables exceed 31 per cent of global electricity provision in 2025, with a total electricity demand of 27430 TWh and a wind generation capacity of 1,837,000 MW worldwide, producing 4023 TWh. As a result, wind energy will conquer a 50 per cent market share of global new power plant installations by 2026, alongside with solar.
Dr. Werner Zittel, expert of Energy Earth Watch Group, says, “It is time to recognise that the many detractors of wind energy, including the IEA, have got it wrong. We have seen more than ten years of unprecedented growth in this sector driven by a wide variety of factors ranging from cost reductions to access to new high wind resources and better grid regulations. There are challenges to overcome in the form of fluctuation in supply and grid connectivity but there are strong incentives for better grids and storage capacities in terms of cost savings for the consumers and real security of supply. Unbundling in the power sector and a timely planning of new grids will put many regions of the world on the fast track for a renewable driven energy sector.”
“With the renewables market being driven forward by the entrance of major commercial players, and experiencing the benefits of consolidation of services around the strengths of different primary energy sources, we believe that the growth of the wind sector, accompanied by solar and other renewables will continue. This is not about morals or environment but the commercial reality that wind, coupled with hydro, solar, biomass and geothermal energy is not only a rapid and cost effective alternative but one that could deliver all our energy requirements within the first half of this century. In times of rising supply disruption risks and rising cost renewable energy technologies are the only source which provides electricity predictable, in terms of economics and in terms of supply.”
High worldwide growth rates for wind power will continue, and wind power will conquer a large part of the energy market in the next foreseeable future (10-15 years). Over the last 25 years, the productivity of wind turbines grew one hundred fold and average capacity per turbine grew by more than 1000 per cent. Transnational companies including General Electric, Siemens, Areva, Alstom, Suzlon have entered the industry and are being followed by a growing number of Chinese businesses.
