Sea ice decline driving changes in arctic air pollutants

Drastic reductions in Arctic sea ice in the last decade may be intensifying the chemical release of bromine into the atmosphere, resulting in ground-level ozone depletion and the deposit of toxic mercury in the Arctic, according to a new NASA-led study.

The connection between changes in the Arctic Ocean's ice cover and bromine chemical processes is determined by the interaction between the salt in sea ice, frigid temperatures and sunlight. When these mix, the salty ice releases bromine into the air and starts a cascade of chemical reactions called a "bromine explosion." These reactions rapidly create more molecules of bromine monoxide in the atmosphere. Bromine then reacts with a gaseous form of mercury, turning it into a pollutant that falls to Earth's surface.

New melt record for Greenland ice sheet

CCNY's Marco Tedesco says 'exceptional' season stretched up to 50 days longer than average

New research shows that 2010 set new records for the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, expected to be a major contributor to projected sea level rises in coming decades.

"This past melt season was exceptional, with melting in some areas stretching up to 50 days longer than average," said Dr. Marco Tedesco, director of the Cryospheric Processes Laboratory at The City College of New York (CCNY – CUNY), who is leading a project studying variables that affect ice sheet melting.

Arctic seabed methane stores destabilising, venting

A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.

The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

Arctic could face warmer and ice-free conditions

There is increased evidence that the Arctic could face seasonally ice-free conditions and much warmer temperatures in the future.

Scientists documented evidence that the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas were too warm to support summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3 to 3 million years ago). This period is characterized by warm temperatures similar to those projected for the end of this century, and is used as an analogue to understand future conditions.

Earth's polar ice sheets vulnerable to even moderate global warming

An additional 2 degrees of global warming could commit the planet

A new analysis of the geological record of the Earth's sea level, carried out by scientists at Princeton and Harvard universities and published in the Dec. 16 issue of Nature, employs a novel statistical approach that reveals the planet's polar ice sheets are vulnerable to large-scale melting even under moderate global warming scenarios. Such melting would lead to a large and relatively rapid rise in global sea level.

Greenland glaciers: What lies beneath?

Mist escapes from the ice at the edge of a Greenland glacier. Photo:Alberto Behar, Jet Propulsion LaboratoryResearchers learning more about how water beneath glaciers contributes to ice loss

Scientists who study the melting of Greenland's glaciers are discovering that water flowing beneath the ice plays a much more complex role than they previously imagined.Researchers previously thought that melt-water simply lubricated ice against the bedrock, speeding the flow of glaciers out to sea.

Portraits of Resilience exhibit give a voice to Arctic communities

Photo:UNEPA new photography exhibit is bringing the voice of young people in the Arctic to Copenhagen during the UN climate talks.

The Portraits of Resilience photography project, which opened today at Copenhagen's Danish National Museum, illustrates the ethical dimension of the climate change discussion through the words and photographs of high school students in four Arctic communities: Shishmaref, Alaska; Ummannaq, Kalaallit Nunaat/Greenland; Ungàrgga/Nesseby, Norway; and Pangnirtung, Nunavut, Canada.

Common seasonal pattern among bacterial communities in Arctic rivers

Discovery identifies aquatic bacteria as possible markers for monitoring Arctic climate change

New research on bacterial communities throughout six large Arctic river ecosystems reveals predictable temporal patterns, suggesting that scientists could use these communities as markers for monitoring climate change in the polar regions. The study, published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Early Edition, shows that bacterial communities in the six rivers shifted synchronously over time, correlating with seasonal shifts in hydrology and biogeochemistry.

Investigating climate change, alternative fuels in Arctic

NRL's Marine Biogeochemistry section organised and led an international research expedition aboard the USCG Polar Sea in the Beaufort Sea during Sept. 15-26, 2009. Photo: US Coast GuardScientists from the Marine Biogeochemistry and Geology and Geophysics sections of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) organised and led a team of university and government scientists on an Arctic expedition to initiate methane hydrate exploration in the Beaufort Sea and determine the spatial variation of sediment contribution to Arctic climate change.

Utilising the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Polar Sea as a research platform, three cross-shelf transects were surveyed and sampled off Alaska's North Slope at Hammerhead, Thetis Island and Halkett representing three regions of the Alaskan shelf. The expedition integrated expertise in coastal geophysics, sediment geochemistry, dissolved and free methane fluxes through the water column and into the atmosphere, sediment and water column microbiology and biogeochemistry and detailed characterisation of the sub-seafloor geology.

Polar bear habitat in Alaska declared critical

Photo: Alan D. Wilson/WikimediaIn a move applauded by WWF, the US Department of the Interior has announced the proposed designation of almost 52 million hectares of key polar bear habitat across Alaska. The requirement for the identification of 'critical habitat' was triggered by the listing of polar bears as threatened under the US Endangered Species Act in 2008.

"Designation of critical habitat affords important protections to the polar bear, a species imperiled by dramatic changes in its sea ice environment," says Geoff York, senior program officer for Polar Bear Conservation at WWF.

"As sea ice habitat shrinks, it becomes increasingly important to protect areas that are crucial for the bears' survival."

The critical habitat proposal announced today identifies habitat in three separate areas or units: barrier island habitat, sea ice habitat and terrestrial denning habitat. The total area proposed for designation would cover almost 52 million hectares (200,541 square miles).

Barrier island habitat includes coastal barrier islands and spits along Alaska's coast, and is used for denning, refuge from human disturbances, access to maternal dens and feeding habitat, as well as travel along the coast. Sea ice habitat is located over the continental shelf, and includes water 300m and less in depth. Terrestrial denning habitat includes lands within 32 km (about 20 miles) of the northern coast of Alaska between the Canadian border and the Kavik River and within 8 km (about 5 miles) between the Kavik River and Barrow.

WWF works around the Arctic with local communities, scientists and governments to enhance polar bear conservation, protect their habitat, and ensure sustainable populations. WWF encourages the Department of the Interior to ensure that the views of local people are incorporated in the designation of critical habitat areas.


With the impact of climate change, Arctic ice has started to melt. The consequences for the polar bear, will be devastating. Video:WWF/Youtube

The world's top scientific experts on polar bears, the Polar Bear Specialist Group of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), recently concluded that the IUCN Red List classification of the polar bear should be upgraded from 'Least Concern' to 'Vulnerable'. That was based on the likelihood of an overall decline in the size of the total population of more than 30 per cent within the next 35 to 50 years..
The principal cause of this decline is climatic warming as it melts away the polar bears' important sea ice habitat.

At the Polar Bear Specialist Group Meeting this summer, the experts concluded that eight polar bear population groups are now in decline, up from five in 2005.

"Polar bears are not land animals - they evolved over thousands of years to be sea ice specialists. They need the ice to hunt for seals, their primary food. Take away the ice and you take away the bears," added York.

In recent years, science has documented a decline in the condition and cub survival rate of some of the most southerly bear populations, and most recently significant increases in polar bear movements and home ranges as animals are forced to migrate longer distances in search of food or habitat.

"The changes we are witnessing in the Arctic do not just raise concerns about the fate of iconic species such as polar bear - our own future is at stake," said York.

"The planet is changing in dangerous ways and the longer we wait to address the climate crisis the costlier it will be. While designation of critical habitat for polar bear is a positive step, it remains critical that the U.S. Senate pass a climate bill this year, moving us closer to reaching a global agreement in Copenhagen this December."

United States allows new offshore drilling

The Minerals Management Service of the US Department of Interior has approved Shell Inc.’s Exploration Plan to explore two leases in the Beaufort Sea, off Alaska in the Arctic region.

The US decision has resulted in wide protests from conservationists in the area. Organisations such as the Pacific Environment and Centre for Biodiversity have already registered their protest with the federal decision.Protests rage in the wake of potential threat that the drilling would cause to the Arctic environment.

Lives of several endangered Arctic fauna including the critically endangered polar bear, bowhead whales, Pacific walrus and ribbon seal will be put in serious danger by the pollution caused by the proposed drilling activity.

Environmental activists condemn the decision by reminding that the Arctic is one of the riskiest places on the planet to carry out such industrial activities. The noise level produced by the drilling would lead to the pollution of both water and air in the neighbouring area.

MMS document announcing the decision says that Shell will be facing strict regulations for the operation. The announcement clearly states the non-applicability of a federal court’s decision which came in April 2009. The court had thrown out the Interior Department's 2007-2012 offshore oil and gas leasing program after finding that part of the department's environmental analysis was inadequate.

“The sales were included in the 2002-2007 five year oil and gas leasing program and are not affected by the recent court decision on the current leasing program, which sent the 2007-2012 program back to MMS for additional analysis under section 18 of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act,” says the MMS press release.

Such technical grounding to give permission to the current plan would in no way reduce the environmental impact of the drilling operation. Apart from the threat to Arctic creatures the plan also posits danger to the subsistence activities of Inuit populations of the region.

However strict the regulations be, it is obvious that any activity on the Arctic region would have catastrophic environmental impacts. The sensitivity of the region has already been listed by several environmental studies including those funded by the federal government.

The present decision seems to overrule all such findings and close eyes against all the warnings made of a changing climate. This decision pushes Obama’s promise to improve on the climate change combat plans to the margins and brings the oil hungry economic strategy similar to the Bush administration to the forefront.

Climate change, it seems, is yet to be seen as an issue that demands immediate action. Whereas the fact remains that action to combat climate change cannot wait. Such decisions from the developed world will send a wrong signal to the developing. And climate would continue to change regardless of the magnitude of the deal that is shaping to be sealed. That would be sealed forever never to be unsealed.

Author: Krishnakumar G.

Television: Less effective educator about climate change

Worried about climate change and want to learn more? You probably aren't watching television then. A new study by George Mason University Communication Professor Xiaoquan Zhao suggests that watching television has no significant impact on viewers' knowledge about the issue of climate change. Reading newspapers and using the web, however, seem to contribute to people's knowledge about this issue.

The study, "Media Use and Global Warming Perceptions: A Snapshot of the Reinforcing Spirals", looked at the relationship between media use and people's perceptions of global warming. The study asked participants how often they watch TV, surf the Web, and read newspapers. They were also asked about their concern and knowledge of global warming and specifically its impact on the polar regions.

"Unlike many other social issues with which the public may have first-hand experience, global warming is an issue that many come to learn about through the media," says Zhao. "The primary source of mediated information about global warming is the news."

The results showed that people who read newspapers and use the Internet more often are more likely to be concerned about global warming and believe they are better educated about the subject. Watching more television, however, did not seem to help.

He also found that individuals concerned about global warming are more likely to seek out information on this issue from a variety of media and nonmedia sources. Other forms of media, such as the Oscar-winning documentary "The Inconvenient Truth" and the blockbuster thriller "The Day After Tomorrow," have played important roles in advancing the public's interest in this domain.

Politics also seemed to have an influence on people’s perceptions about the science of global warming. Republicans are more likely to believe that scientists are still debating the existence and human causes of global warming, whereas Democrats are more likely to believe that a scientific consensus has already been achieved on these matters.

"Some media forms have clear influence on people's perceived knowledge of global warming, and most of it seems positive," says Zhao. "Future research should focus on how to harness this powerful educational function."

Arctic carbon capture predicted to change

The arctic could potentially alter the Earth’s climate by becoming a possible source of global atmospheric carbon dioxide. The arctic now traps or absorbs up to 25 per cent of this gas but climate change could alter that amount, according to a study published in the November issue of Ecological Monographs.

In their review paper, David McGuire of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Alaska at Fairbanks and his colleagues show that the Arctic has been a carbon sink since the end of the last Ice Age, which has recently accounted for between zero and 25 per cent, or up to about 800 million metric tons, of the global carbon sink. On average, says McGuire, the Arctic accounts for 10-15 per cent of the Earth’s carbon sink. But the rapid rate of climate change in the Arctic – about twice that of lower latitudes – could eliminate the sink and instead, possibly make the Arctic a source of carbon dioxide.

“This study is another example of the important role played by USGS and its partners in providing the scientific research that must be the backbone of any actions related to climate change,” said Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar.

Carbon generally enters the oceans and land masses of the Arctic from the atmosphere and largely accumulates in permafrost, the frozen layer of soil underneath the land’s surface. Unlike active soils, permafrost does not decompose its carbon; thus, the carbon becomes trapped in the frozen soil. Cold conditions at the surface have also slowed the rate of organic matter decomposition, McGuire says, allowing Arctic carbon accumulation to exceed its release.

But recent warming trends could change this balance. Warmer temperatures can accelerate the rate of surface organic matter decomposition, releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Of greater concern, says McGuire, is that the permafrost has begun to thaw, exposing previously frozen soil to decomposition and erosion. These changes could reverse the historical role of the Arctic as a sink for carbon dioxide.

“In the short term, warming temperatures could release more Arctic carbon to the atmosphere,” says McGuire. “And with permafrost thawing, there will be more available carbon to release.”

On the scale of a few decades, the thawing permafrost could also result in a more waterlogged Arctic, says McGuire, a situation that could encourage the activity of methane-producing organisms. Currently, the Arctic is a substantial source of methane to the atmosphere: as much as 50 million metric tons of methane are released per year, in comparison to the 400 million metric tons of carbon dioxide the Arctic stores yearly. But methane is a very potent greenhouse gas – about 23 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide on a 100-year time scale. If the release of Arctic methane accelerates, global warming could increase at much faster rates.

“We don’t understand methane very well, and its releases to the atmosphere are more episodic than the exchanges of carbon dioxide with the atmosphere,” says McGuire. “It’s important to pay attention to methane dynamics because of methane’s substantial potential to accelerate global warming.”

But uncertainties still abound about the response of the Arctic system to climate change. For example, the authors write, global warming may produce longer growing seasons that promote plant photosynthesis, which removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Also, the expansion of shrubs in tundra and the movement of treeline northward could sequester more carbon in vegetation. However, increasingly dry conditions may counteract and overcome these effects. Similarly, dry conditions can lead to increased fire prevalence, releasing even more carbon.

McGuire contends that only specific regional studies can determine which areas are likely to experience changes in response to climate change.

“If the response of the arctic carbon cycle to climate change results in substantial net releases of greenhouse gases, this could compromise proposed mitigation efforts for controlling the carbon cycle,” he says.

The article, Sensitivity of the Carbon Cycle in the Arctic to Climate Change, was published online today in Ecological Monographs. The coordinating lead author is David McGuire, USGS, and the co-authors include internationally renowned scientists from Canada, Germany, Sweden, and the United States. This study was sponsored by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, the Climate in the Cryosphere Program, and the International Arctic Science Committee.

Ten more years for an iceless Arctic summer holiday

Catlin Arctic Survey and WWF provide further evidence of thinning Arctic Ocean sea ice. Photo: Martin Hartley / WWF-CanonRapid ice loss found in survey supports trend to summer ice free Arctic within decade

New data, released by the Catlin Arctic Survey and WWF, provides further evidence of thinning Arctic Ocean sea ice, supporting the emerging thinking that the Ocean will be largely ice-free in summer within a decade.

The Catlin Arctic Survey, completed earlier this year, provides the latest ice thickness record, drawn from the only survey capturing surface measurements in the last winter and spring.

The data collected by manual drilling and observations on a 450 kilometre route across the northern part of the Beaufort Sea suggests the survey area is comprised almost exclusively of first year ice.

This is a significant finding because the region has traditionally contained older, thicker multi-year ice. The average thickness of the ice-floes measured 1.8 metres, a depth considered too thin to survive the next summer’s ice melt.

The findings were analysed by the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the University of Cambridge, led by Professor Peter Wadhams, one of the world’s leading experts on sea ice cover in the North Pole region.

“With a larger part of the region now first year ice, it is clearly more vulnerable,” said Professor Wadhams. “The area is now more likely to become open water each summer, bringing forward the potential date when the summer sea ice will be completely gone.

“The Catlin Arctic Survey data supports the new consensus view, based on seasonal variation of ice extent and thickness, changes in temperatures, winds and especially ice composition, that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within about 20 years, and that much of the decrease will be happening within 10 years.

“That means you’ll be able to treat the Arctic as if it were essentially an open sea in the summer and have transport across the Arctic Ocean.”

According to the scientists who have studied the data, the technique used by the explorers to take measurements on the surface of the ice has the potential to help ice modellers to refine predictions about the future survival or decline of the ice.

“This is the kind of scientific work we always wanted to support by getting to places in the Arctic which are otherwise nearly impossible to reach for research purposes,” said Expedition leader Pen Hadow.

“It’s what modern exploration should be doing. Our on-the-ice techniques are helping scientists to understand better what is going on in this fragile ecosystem.”

The results of the analysis of more than 6000 measurements and observations collected by the survey in 73 days on the ice were unveiled today in London with warnings that rapid climate change in the Arctic risked the release of vast quantities of carbon stored in hydrates on the Arctic seabed or in frozen tundra soils.

“The arctic sea ice holds a central position in our Earth’s climate system. Take it out of the equation and we are left with a dramatically warmer world,” said Dr. Martin Sommerkorn from the WWF International Arctic Programme, which was a partner in the survey.

“Such a loss of Arctic sea ice cover has recently been assessed to set in motion powerful climate feedbacks which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself – self perpetuating cycles, amplifying and accelerating the consequences of global warming. This could lead to flooding affecting one quarter of the world’s population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emissions from massive carbon pools, and extreme global weather changes."

“Today’s findings provide yet another urgent call for action to world leaders ahead of the UN climate summit in Copenhagen this December to rapidly and effectively curb global greenhouse gas emissions, with rich countries committing to reduce emissions by 40 per cent by 2020.”

Arctic land and seas account for up to 25 per cent of world's carbon sink

New study shows that Arctic has potential to alter Earth's climate

In a new study in the journal Ecological Monographs, ecologists estimate that Arctic lands and oceans are responsible for up to 25 per cent of the global net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Under current predictions of global warming, this Arctic sink could be diminished or reversed, potentially accelerating predicted rates of climate change.

In their review paper, David McGuire of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Alaska at Fairbanks and his colleagues show that the Arctic has been a carbon sink since the end of the last Ice Age, which over time has accounted for between zero and 25 per cent, or up to about 800 million metric tons, of the global carbon sink.

On average, says McGuire, the Arctic accounts for 10-15 per cent of the Earth's carbon sink. But the rapid rate of climate change in the Arctic – about twice that of lower latitudes – could eliminate the sink and possibly make the Arctic a source of carbon dioxide.

Carbon generally enters the oceans and land masses of the Arctic from the atmosphere and largely accumulates in permafrost, the frozen layer of soil underneath the land's surface. Unlike active soils, permafrost does not decompose its carbon; thus, the carbon becomes trapped in the frozen soil. Cold conditions at the surface have also slowed the rate of organic matter decomposition, McGuire says, allowing Arctic carbon accumulation to exceed its release.

But recent warming trends could change this balance. Warmer temperatures can accelerate the rate of surface decomposition, releasing more carbon into the atmosphere. More concerning, says McGuire, is that the permafrost has begun to thaw, exposing previously frozen soil to decomposition and erosion. These changes could reverse the historical role of the Arctic as a sink for carbon.

"In the short term, warming temperatures could expose more Arctic carbon to decomposition," says McGuire. "And with permafrost melting, there will be more available carbon to decompose."

On the scale of a few decades, the thawing permafrost could also result in a more waterlogged Arctic, says McGuire, a situation that could encourage the activity of methane-producing organisms. Currently, the Arctic is a substantial source of methane to the atmosphere: as much as 50 million metric tons of methane is released per year, in comparison to the 400 million metric tons of carbon dioxide the Arctic sequesters yearly. But methane is a very potent greenhouse gas – about 23 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide on a 100-year time scale. If the release of Arctic methane accelerates, global warming could increase at much faster rates.

"We don't understand methane very well, and its releases to the atmosphere are more episodic than the exchanges of carbon dioxide with the atmosphere," says McGuire. "It's important to pay attention to methane dynamics because of methane's substantial potential to accelerate global warming."

But uncertainties still abound about the response of the Arctic system to climate change. For example, the authors write, global warming may produce longer growing seasons that promote plant photosynthesis, which removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere; however, increasingly dry conditions may might counteract and overcome this effect. Similarly, dry conditions can lead to increased fire prevalence, releasing even more carbon.

McGuire contends that only specific regional studies can determine which areas are likely to experience changes in response to climate change.

"If the response of the arctic carbon cycle to climate change results in substantial net releases of greenhouse gases, this could compromise mitigation efforts that we have in mind for controlling the carbon cycle," he says.

Arctic Sea ice extent is third lowest on record

US satellite measurements show Arctic sea ice extent in 2009 – the area of the Arctic Ocean covered by floating ice – was the third lowest since satellite measurements were first made in 1979. The ice area at minimum was an increase from the past two years, but still well below the average for the past 30 years.

Arctic sea ice reached its minimum extent around September 12, as shown in the image and video below/above. According to scientists affiliated with the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), sea ice coverage dropped to 5.10 million square kilometers (1.97 million square miles) at its minimum. The ice cover was 970,000 square kilometers (370,000 square miles) greater than the record low of 2007 and 580,000 square kilometers (220,000 square miles) greater than 2008.

NSIDC is sponsored by several US government agencies, including NASA. Ice data are derived from measurements made by U.S. Department of Defense and NASA satellites, with key work in interpreting the data and developing the 30-year history done by scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

"The changes from year to year are interesting since there has been large variability," said Josefino Comiso, a sea ice expert at NASA Goddard. "But we need to look at several years of data to examine the long-term trends."

"Our three decades of continuous satellite measurements show a rapid decline of about 11.6 percent per decade," Comiso said. Arctic sea ice has declined about 34 percent since measurements were first made in the late 1970s.

The four lowest ice extents on record have occurred between 2005 and 2009, with the record minimum reached during a dramatic drop in ice cover in 2007 that was exacerbated by unusual polar winds.

Several recent studies based on data from NASA's ICESat and QuikScat satellites have shown that, in addition to shrinking geographic ice coverage, the amount of multi-year ice cover – thicker ice that survives more than one summer, has been declining in recent years.

"The oceans are crucial to Earth's climate system, since they store huge amounts of heat," said Comiso. "Changes in sea ice cover can lead to circulation changes not just in the Arctic Ocean, but also in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. If you change ocean circulation, you change the world's climate."

Changes in the Arctic ice cover could also mean a new paradigm for life in the sea. "The waters at high latitudes are some of the most biologically productive in the world because of the presence of sea ice," Comiso added. "Many of our richest fisheries are the seas around the Arctic Ocean, and we don't know what the consequences might be if the seasonal sea ice disappears in these regions."

World leaders call for big leap on climate deal

World leaders at the recently concluded UN Summit on Climate Change called for a sustainable climate deal to tackle the challenges posed by global warming. All the leaders who assembled at the summit were concerned over the consequences of global warming, and called for framing a comprehensive deal at Copenhagen in December this year.

The UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon said the summit is a testament to what Copenhagen can offer. He said that the leaders assembled in the summit have the power to decide for a better future. "The power to reduce the emissions that are causing climate change... to help the most vulnerable adapt to changes that are already under way... to catalyze a new era of global green growth."

"The world’s leading scientists warn that we have less than ten years to avoid the worst-case scenarios projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]. Indeed those worst-case scenarios are becoming ever more likely. We must halt the rise in global emissions."

Referring to his recent visit to Arctic, he said he was alarmed by the rapid pace of change. The Arctic could be nearly ice-free by 2030. The consequences will be felt by people on every continent, Ban said.

He pointed out that all across Africa, the most vulnerable continent, climate change threatens to roll back years of development gains.

"Climate change is the pre-eminent geopolitical and economic issue of the 21st century. It rewrites the global equation for development, peace and prosperity...Some say tackling climate change is too expensive. They are wrong. The opposite is true. We will pay an unacceptable price if we do not act now," he said.

Talking about the need for success at Copenhagen, he stressed the importance of all countries working toward a common, long-term goal to limit global temperature rise to safe levels consistent with science.

"It will include ambitious emission reduction targets from industrialised countries by 2020."

He stressed that a successful deal must strengthen the world’s ability to cope with inevitable changes. "In particular, it must provide comprehensive support to the most vulnerable. They have contributed least to this crisis and are suffering first, and worst."

He said that Copenhagen deal must make available the full range of public and private resources, so developing countries can pursue low-emissions growth, as well as adapt. It must provide a framework that will unlock private investment, including through the carbon markets.

He added that success in Copenhagen will have positive ripple effects for global cooperation on trade, energy, security and health. And failure to reach broad agreement in Copenhagen would be "morally inexcusable, economically short-sighted and politically unwise."

US President Barack Obama said that the developed nations, including the US, that caused much of the damage to our climate over the last century still have a responsibility to lead. He said it is not possible to allow the old divisions that have characterised the climate debate for so many years to block our progress.

Detailing US's plans towards a greener planet, Obama said: "We are making our government's largest ever investment in renewable energy – an investment aimed at doubling the generating capacity from wind and other renewable resources in three years. We're investing billions to cut energy waste in our homes, our buildings, and appliances, helping American families save money on energy bills in the process."

"We've proposed the very first national policy aimed at both increasing fuel economy and reducing greenhouse gas pollution for all new cars and trucks – a standard that will also save consumers money and our nation oil. We're moving forward with our nation's first offshore wind energy projects. We're investing billions to capture carbon pollution so that we can clean up our coal plants. And just this week, we announced that for the first time ever, we'll begin tracking how much greenhouse gas pollution is being emitted throughout the country."

Attributing in part the recent drop in overall US emissions to steps taken to promote greater efficiency and greater use of renewable energy, Obama said his country has put climate at the top of diplomatic agenda while dealing with countries like China and India.

Obama, however, said that these rapidly growing developing nations that will produce nearly all the growth in global carbon emissions in the decades ahead must do their part to mitigate climate change. "We cannot meet this challenge unless all the largest emitters of greenhouse gas pollution act together. There's no other way."

He said rich countries should help poorest and most vulnerable nations adapt to the impacts of climate change and pursue low-carbon development, for these are the nations that are already living with the unfolding effects of a warming planet – famine, drought, disappearing coastal villages, and the conflicts that arise from scarce resources.

Warning signals

Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC, who spoke on behalf of the scientific community, listed the salient points of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report.

"Mitigation of emissions is essential, and the IPCC has assessed mitigation costs as
modest. To limit average temperature increase at 2.0 and 2.4 degrees C, the cost of
mitigation by 2030 would not exceed 3 per cent of the global GDP."

He attributed the drastic effects of global warming – melting glaciers, increasing temperature and rising sea level – to the increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.

"In Africa, by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to water stress due to climate change. By the same year in some countries of Africa yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 per cent," he said, adding that the impacts of climate change would be disproportionately severe on some of the poorest regions and communities of the world.

"My own analysis suggests that at least 12 countries are likely to tend towards becoming failed states and communities in several other states would show potential for serious conflict due to scarcity of food, water stress and soil degradation."

He added that avoiding the impacts of climate change through mitigation of emissions would provide incalculable benefits including economic expansion and employment.

All the speakers were united in digging the reasons that lead to the destructive phenomenon. The developed world accepted its own lead responsibility in contributing towards climate change and at the same time called for action from the developing world because of the effects that they too would face.

The concerns and worries expressed by the leaders revealed their commitment towards a globally acceptable climate deal. All of them presented their own individual schemes of action to reach this goal.

Save forests

Calling for a quick action, the French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced that France will make proposals with Brazil and the countries of the Congo basin on the issue of forest. "Twenty per cent of emissions come from forest destruction. We must help countries with the world's largest forests, which are reservoirs for the protection of the environment. The Amazon...The forest of the Congo Basin... the forest of Siberia. Forests are the property of mankind."

Expressing his concerns over the severe impact global warming can have on Africa, Rwanda President Paul Kagame said the lack of resources to tackle the challenge would increase its effect on the continent. He added that in this struggle for survival pointing fingers would only be counterproductive.

He called for a a shared responsibility for a mitigation and adaptation strategy that leaves no one behind "because we are all in this together."

Asserting that the current cap and trade process is a disincentive to developing
countries to adopt a low carbon dioxide emission pathway, he proposed an entirely
different mechanism that takes care of developing countries as well.

"Why not provide a country by country downward trajectory for all countries above, say, two tones carbon dioxide per person per year; and a constant trading trajectory for all those below? Then the developing countries below this threshold would have a financial incentive to maintain this status, by trading with the developed countries that exceed their quota."

This would create a large financial flow from the developed world sufficient to manage the developing world's needs for adaptation and mitigation.

Asserting that this not "solicitation for aid", Kagame said that this strategy guarantees the cap arid trade process -and would lead to the lowering of emissions since all countries will be incentivized to reduce them.

Let equity be the principle

Denmark Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said that the deal must be based on the principle of equity. It must support, not delay the fight against poverty. While calling for developed countries to commit finance overseas mitigation and adaptation efforts, Rasmussen stressed the need for international research in green technology - and facilitate its dissemination all over the world.

Fredrik Reinfeldt, Prime Minister of Sweden, pointed out the need to break the deadlock on the Copenhagen meeting. "Give clear political guidance to the negotiation process. Now is the time to rise to the challenge."

He added that developed countries should help developing countries on climate change. "Social and economic systems in developing countries are often more vulnerable. They need to adapt to the climate change they are already experiencing. And we need to help them".

Dr. Yukio Hatoyama, Prime Minister of Japan said his country has set a mid-term goal of reducing its emissions by 25 per cent by 2020. He added that this will include the introduction of a domestic emission trading mechanism and a feed-in tariff for renewable energy, as well as the consideration of a global warming tax.

He, however, said that Japan's efforts alone cannot halt climate change, even if it sets an ambitious reduction target. It is imperative to establish a fair and effective international framework in which all major economies participate.

He announced that Japan proposes to establish a framework to promote the transfer of low-carbon technologies which ensures the protection of intellectual property rights.

"With Japan having relatively strong potential for technological development as well as considerable financial capacity, the country is expected to take the lead in the international community in setting its own reduction target, and to achieve such target through the development of innovative technologies," he added.

Mohamed Nasheed, President of the Republic of Maldives, started his speech expressing discontent over the empty words of promise to help combat climate change. He stated that it has become a ritual for his state to be invited to speak at conferences on climate change for the last 20 years.

"We warn you that unless you act quickly and decisively, our homeland and others like it will disappear beneath the rising sea before the end of this century," he said, adding that in each meeting, assembled leaders of the world stand up and express solidarity, only to forget later.

"If developed countries do act decisively, we in the developing world must be ready to jump, by accepting binding emission reduction targets under the principle of common but differentiated responsibility, providing that the rich world gives us the tools to do so, namely the technology and finance to help us reform our economic base and pursue carbon-neutral development. While priority must be given to mitigation, the developed world must also provide new, additional and predictable adaptation financing," he said.

He announced that the Maldives, without waiting for the outcome of the Copenhagen Summit, has announced its intention to become carbon-neutral by 2020.

Dwelling at length on the devastating effects of global warming all over the world, Nobel Peace laureate Prof Mathaai said that even in her country Kenya, over ten million people are at risk of starvation, with falling crops, dying cattle.

"As a Goodwill Ambassador of the Congo forest, and especially the major tropical forests, which we refer to as the three lungs of the planet (the Amazon, the Congo and the forest complex in South East Asia around Indonesia and Borneo), I know that reducing deforestation and forest degradation is a viable piece of the puzzle. Even at personal level, we can all reduce, re-use and recycle, what is embraced as Mottainai in Japan, a concept that also calls us to express gratitude, to respect and to avoid wastage."

Arctic could be free of summer sea ice by 2030

As the minimum area of summer Arctic sea-ice extent was today reported to have plummeted to the third-lowest level ever in recorded history, the Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise is hosting world-class sea ice expert Dr. Peter Wadhams, on a mission to conduct research into sea-ice loss in the Arctic Ocean, off the northeast coast of Greenland.

“We’re entering a new epoch of sea ice melt in the Arctic Ocean due to climate change,” said Dr. Peter Wadhams. “In five years’ time most of the sea-ice could be gone in summer with just an ‘Alamo of ice’ remaining north of Ellesmere Island. In 20 years’ time, that will also be gone, leaving the Arctic Ocean completely ice-free in summer. It’s clear we can’t rely on current models of prediction for sea-ice melt, as they have been constantly outpaced since the 1980s.”

Wadhams, of the University of Cambridge, is leading a team of five independent scientists who plan will use buoys moored to pressured ice, ice cores and a number of other methods to calculate the melt rate of ridged ice, a feature that accounts for over half the volume of ice in the Arctic Ocean and which is disappearing fast as a consequence of climate change, in order to answer the question of why it is melting faster than non-ridged ice.

The Arctic Sunrise will be working in the sea-ice of Fram Strait, between Greenland and the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard, until the end of the month supporting Wadhams’ sea ice research.

Sea-ice extent has been in decline for the last 30 years, but the speed of that decline has accelerated in the last decade and especially so in the last four years, outpacing scientific predictions. In 2007, the area of summer sea-ice extent reached a level that was not predicted to occur until 2080, with 2008 coming in a close second. While this year’s low sea-ice extent did not surpass those of 2007 and 2008, it does suggest another significant acceleration of sea-ice melt in the Arctic Ocean.

“Another record year of melting sea-ice makes for another deafening alarm about the state of the world’s climate,” said Melanie Duchin, Expedition Leader on board the Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise. “World leaders must heed this alarm and forge an agreement that takes bold, ambitious and decisive action at the upcoming climate summit in Copenhagen this December.”

“ What’s needed is a 40 per cent cut in greenhouse gases by 2020 on the part of developed countries; they also need to invest USD140 billion per year to help developing countries deal with the impacts of climate change, stop deforestation and switch to a low carbon economy. To do anything less is to ignore the warnings we’re seeing in the Arctic and elsewhere that tell us that the climate is in
serious peril.”

Arctic sea ice reaches minimum extent for 2009

CU-Boulder's Snow and Ice Data Center analysis shows negative summertime ice trend continues

The Arctic sea ice cover appears to have reached its minimum extent for the year, the third-lowest recorded since satellites began measuring sea ice extent in 1979, according to the University of Colorado at Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center.

While this year's September minimum extent was greater than each of the past two record-setting and near-record-setting low years, it is still significantly below the long-term average and well outside the range of natural climate variability, said NSIDC Research Scientist Walt Meier. Most scientists believe the shrinking Arctic sea ice is tied to warming temperatures caused by an increase in human-produced greenhouse gases being pumped into Earth's atmosphere.

Atmospheric circulation patterns helped the Arctic sea ice spread out in August to prevent another record-setting minimum, said Meier. But most of the 2009 September Arctic sea ice is thin first- or second-year ice, rather than thicker, multi-year ice that used to dominate the region, said Meier.

The minimum 2009 sea-ice extent is still about 620,000 square miles below the average minimum extent measured between 1979 and 2000, an area nearly equal to the size of Alaska, said Meier. "We are still seeing a downward trend that appears to be heading toward ice-free Arctic summers," Meier said.

CU-Boulder's NSIDC will provide more detailed information in early October with a full analysis of the 2009 Arctic ice conditions, including aspects of the melt season and conditions heading into the winter ice-growth season. The report will include graphics comparing 2009 to the long-term Arctic sea-ice record.

The Arctic as we know it may soon change

An adult female muskox and two calves in Greenland during 2008-2009. Photos: Eric Post/Penn State University"The Arctic as we know it may soon be a thing of the past," says Eric Post, associate professor of biology at Penn State University. Post leads a large, international team that carried out ecosystem-wide studies of the biological response to Arctic warming during the fourth International Polar Year, which ended in 2008. The team's results are reported on 11 September 2009 in the journal Science.

The team's research documents a wide range of responses by plants, birds, animals, insects, and humans to the warming trend. The scientists found that the increase in mean annual surface temperature in the Arctic over the last 150 years has had dramatic effects.

In the last 20 to 30 years, for example, the seasonal minimal sea ice coverage has declined by a staggering 45,000 square kilometers per year. Similarly, the extent of terrestrial snow cover has declined steadily, with earlier melting and breaking up and an earlier start to the growing season. "Species on land and at sea are suffering adverse consequences of human behavior at latitudes thousands of miles away," declares Post. "It seems no matter where you look, on the ground, in the air, or in the water, we're seeing signs of rapid change."

The study led by Post shows that many iconic Arctic species that are dependent upon the stability and persistence of sea ice are faring especially badly. Loss of polar ice habitat is causing a rapid decline in the numbers of ivory gull, Pacific walrus, ringed seal, hooded seal, narwhal, and polar bear. The researchers found that Polar bears and ringed seals, both of which give birth in lairs or caves under the snow, lose many newborn pups when the lairs collapse in unusually early spring rains. These species may be headed for extinction.

The research also reveals that species once confined to more southerly ranges now are moving northward. Among the most visible invaders are red foxes, which are displacing Arctic foxes from territories once too cold for red foxes. Some of the less showy invaders that the scientists found also are moving northward include the winter moth, which defoliates mountain birch forests, and species of Low Arctic trees and shrubs, which affect the dynamics of trace-gas exchange.

The presence of more shrubs and trees promotes deeper snow accumulation, increasing soil temperatures during the winter, and more microbial activity in the soil, which in turn makes the habitats more suitable for shrubs. Increasing the shrub cover may lengthen the period during the plant growing season when the tundra acts as a carbon-dioxide sink. Countering this change, the research reveals, are musk oxen and reindeer, which browse on shrubs, limiting their carbon-soaking capacity and northward expansion to the High Arctic. Grazing, trampling, and defecation by these herbivores promote the growth and spread of grasses, which further attract geese.

The geese in turn influence the productivity of lakes, where they rest and graze. The research indicates that complex aquatic and marine food webs like these are extremely vulnerable to alteration due to changes in temperature, precipitation, and nutrient load from the land.

The research shows that the effects of Arctic warming have been dramatic so far, especially since the warming amounts to only about 1-degree Celsius over the last 150 years. Post said it is difficult to predict what will happen with the anticipated 6-degree warming over the next century.

"The results of our studies so far reveal widespread changes, but also a surprising heterogeneity in biological responses to warming," comments Post. For example, the study shows that wild reindeer on the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard actually have benefited from melting of snow during winter, and perhaps also from the earlier seasonal loss of snow cover. With less snow cover and a longer growing season, these nonmigratory reindeer have taken advantage of the increased plant abundance, with the result that reindeer populations and their ability to reproduce are up, while mortality is down.

Greenland landscape and Inland Ice during July 2008In contrast, migratory caribou in Low Arctic Greenland and elsewhere are declining in numbers, the study found. The caribou have not been able to adjust their calving season to keep it synchronised with changes in plant growth. Thus, the research shows, the time when the females need the most food no longer matches the time of maximum food availability, so fewer calves survive. The research suggests that hotter summers may result in more insects and parasites to prey on the caribou, which in turn may reduce the annual caribou harvest by local indigenous peoples. "Inuit hunters at my study site in Greenland have all but given up on hunting caribou there. What will be the next component to disappear from their traditional lifestyle, a lifestyle that has worked for thousands of years?" wonders Post.

Many questions remain unanswered as scientists wrestle with forecasting future events and developing plans to conserve the fragile Arctic ecosystems. Because there are relatively few species in the Arctic, ecosystems in this region may be more vulnerable to changes in its climate. "There is little functional redundancy among species in Arctic ecosystems," explains Post. "Therefore, relatively small shifts in species ranges or abundances may cause fundamental changes in a unique ecosystem that also is important for tourism and traditional cultures."

An adult female caribou and her newborn calf in Greenland during 2008-2009Why do some parts of the ecosystem appear to be unaffected by rising temperatures, while others seem to be heading for collapse? For example, despite heavy harvest and changing environmental conditions, sockeye salmon production in Bristol Bay, Alaska, has remained relatively stable or even increased over the last century. Though hundreds of salmon populations are scattered throughout a range of habitats, the system somehow has compensated for these serious demands.

It has long been assumed that the most important biological activities in the Arctic occur during the growing season, but the work highlighted by Post's team suggests otherwise. One natural winter warming episode in the sub-Arctic led to vegetation damage so extensive that plant productivity in the following summer was reduced by 26 per cent over an area of at least 1400 square kilometers. In a different area, there was an unexpectedly large release of methane into the atmosphere at the onset of autumn soil freezing. Though working in the Arctic in the autumn and winter poses logistical problems, the findings indicate the importance of monitoring the dynamics of the ecosystem year-round.

"People have thought of the Arctic as a relatively simple ecosystem that is easily understood, but in fact it is very complex," explains Post. "Not all populations within a given species respond similarly to warming because physical and landscape features that interact with climate can vary tremendously from site to site. I think response heterogeneity is going to be one of the keys to species persistence, community integrity, and ecosystem function as the Arctic continues to warm."

Post's team calls for establishing a pan-Arctic series of integrated baseline studies to monitor the physical drivers of climate change and the biological responses to them over the long term. "We've seen a great deal of emphasis recently on the melting of Arctic ice," Post says. "The broad, rapid, and in some cases devastating changes documented in this paper remind us of why it's important to give consideration to the consequences of rising temperatures."