"Aside from the overriding need to stabilise atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels to stabilise climate, there are several other reasons for countries to restructure their transport systems, including the need to prepare for falling oil production, to alleviate traffic congestion, and to reduce air pollution," says Lester R. Brown, President of Earth Policy Institute, in a, recent release. "The US car-cantered transportation model that much of the world aspires to will not likely be viable over the long term even for the United States, much less for everywhere else."
The shape of future transportation systems centres around the changing role of the automobile. This in turn is being influenced by the transition from a predominantly rural global society to a largely urban one. By 2020 close to 55 per cent of us will be living in cities, where the role of cars is diminishing.
With world oil output close to peaking, there will not be enough economically recoverable oil to support a world fleet expansion along US lines or, indeed, to sustain the US fleet. Oil shocks are now a major security risk. The United States, where 88 per cent of the 133 million working people travel to work by car, is dangerously vulnerable.
While the future of transportation in cities lies with a mix of light rail, buses, bicycles, cars, and walking, the future of intercity travel over distances of 500 miles or less belongs to high-speed trains. Japan, with its high-speed bullet trains, has pioneered this mode of travel. Operating at speeds up to 190 miles per hour, Japan’s bullet trains carry almost a million passengers a day.
While the first European high-speed line, from Paris to Lyon, did not begin operation until 1981, Europe has made strides since then. As of early 2007 there were 3,034 miles of high-speed rail operating in Europe, with 1,711 more miles to be added by 2010. The goal is to have a Europe-wide high-speed rail system integrating the new eastern countries into a continental network by 2020.
Carbon dioxide emissions per passenger mile on Europe’s high-speed trains are one third those of its cars and only one fourth those of its planes. In the Plan B economy, CO2 emissions from trains will essentially be zero, since they will be powered by green electricity. In addition to being comfortable and convenient, these rail links reduce air pollution, congestion, noise, and accidents.
In the United States, the threat of climate change and the insecurity of oil supplies both argue for the construction of a high-speed electrified rail system, for both passenger and freight traffic. The relatively small amount of additional electricity needed could come from renewable sources, mainly wind farms.
Any meaningful global effort to cut transport CO2 emissions begins with the United States, which consumes more gasoline than the next 20 countries combined. Three initiatives are needed. One is phasing in a gasoline tax for the next 12 years and offsetting it with a reduction in income taxes. This would raise the US gasoline tax to that prevailing today in Europe. Combined with the rising price of gas itself, such a tax should encourage a shift to more fuel-efficient cars. The second measure is raising the fuel-efficiency standard to 45 miles per gallon by 2020, a larger increase than the 35 miles per gallon approved by Congress in late 2007. Third, reaching CO2 reduction goals depends on a heavy shift of transportation funds from highway construction to urban transit and intercity rail construction.
